No one could have known, when Saul “Canelo” Alvarez first flashed his fast fists on the undercard of a Floyd Mayweather in 2010, that the fresh-faced 20-year-old would become one of the biggest stars boxing has ever produced.

It didn’t matter that the stout redhead from Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, was rocked that night. He learned and grew from that experience, winning that fight before embarking on a meteoric rise to the top - annexing titles in four divisions and becoming one of the most successful and accomplished fighters of his generation.

But now, 15 years later, the young lion has metamorphosized into a lion in winter. And the question now is simple: does the Mexican superstar have enough left to reject the challenge of fellow four-time world champion Terence “Bud” Crawford when they meet in the biggest fight of 2025 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas (9 p.m. Eastern, Saturday, NetFlix).

CANELO ALVAREZ

Canelo, 63-2-2 (39 knockouts), is considered one of the greatest Mexican fighters in the history of boxing and will be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer when he’s eligible for induction five years after his retirement. His record is irrefutable. But none of his accolades have been the result of what he has done over the last three years. In short, his last five opponents have gone from passable, to bad, to terrible, to putrid.

Since suffering a stunning decision loss to Dmitry Bivol in 2022, Canelo has feasted mostly on no-hopers in the form of John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, Jaime Munguia, Edgar Berlanga and William Scull – going the distance with all of them. In fact, Canelo has not scored a knockout since November 2021, when he stopped Caleb Plant in the 11^th round.

That was seven fights ago. Clearly, Canelo has lost a step.

As evidence, take his last fight against Scull, a modestly talented runner who was too frightened to stand still and fight. In one of the worst big-fight performances of all time, Scull ran and ran and ran some more. Yet, Canelo couldn’t seem to corner him and threw so few punches that many of the rounds were close.

Rather than cutting off the ring and using his boxing skills to back Scull into the ropes, Alvarez seemed content to follow Scull around the ring. His attempts to cut Scull off seemed awkward and unsure. In a word, he looked…old. Which is no surprise. He’s been fighting since he was 15 years old.

It was a performance that was a far cry from his heyday. Over the last decade and-a-half, Canelo has been “The Face of Boxing,” defeating a who’s who of boxing notables: Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Gennadiy Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev Billy Joe Saunders and Plant, to name a few. His flattening of Khan, his pulverizing of Kovalev and his bludgeoning of Saunders are etched in the highlight reel of recent boxing history.

But the sand may be running out of the hourglass.

TERENCE CRAWFORD

Crawford, 41-0 (31 KOs), of Omaha, Neb., is also one of the best fighters of his generation and the most elite switch-hitter since Marvelous Marvin Hagler more than 30 years ago. His combination of exquisite boxing and aggressive punching have won him titles in four divisions – lightweight, junior welterweight, welterweight and junior middleweight. He is  two years older than Canelo at age 37.

He, too, has beaten an array of top names, including Ricky Burns, Yuriorkis Gamboa, Ray Beltran, Hank Lundy, Viktor Postol, John Molina, Julius Indongo, Egidijus Kavaliauskas, Kell Brook, Shawn Porter and Israil Madrimov. He possesses one of the best resumes in the sport today – contrary to what many believe.

But it’s his July 2023 knockout of longtime rival Errol Spence that stands out in Bud’s spectacular career. Considered the best fight in boxing for several years beforehand, Crawford dominated the fellow undefeated Spence, dropping him three times for a 9^th -round TKO. It was one of the greatest big-fight performances in recent memory, conjuring up memories of Salvador Sanchez stopping Wilfredo Gomez, Julio Cesar Chavez punishing Edwin Rosario and Floyd Mayweather hammering Diego Corrales.

It left no doubt as to Crawford’s place in history.

He has fought one time since, scoring a decision over the previously undefeated Madrimov for the WBO junior middleweight title. It was Bud’s first-ever fight at 154 pounds, and it was an indication that perhaps the extra weight is starting to adversely affect him. He looked slower and more tentative. He ended up winning, but it was close. Two of the judges had Madrimov within two points.

Now, Crawford is being asked to climb two more weight classes.

GO WITH CANELO

There are recent examples of smaller fighters beating bigger fighters. The most obvious was Sugar Ray Leonard’s historic decision over Marvelous Marvin Hagler in 1987, when he moved up from 154 to win the 160-pound title. And, previous to that, Roberto Duran – a former lightweight champ like Crawford - came close in a decision loss to middleweight champ Hagler. And 40 years ago, Michael Spinks gained 24 pounds and shocked Larry Holmes to become the first light heavyweight to win the heavyweight title.

So it’s possible. Like Leonard, Duran and Spinks – Bud needs to box, box, box. Not run like Scull did, but move, feint, parry, counter, spin and switch-hit to keep Canelo from getting set. He’s got to use his feet, use space, create angles and move out of the way. Two weight classes is a lot, and Crawford knows that one wrong move could turn out the lights.

In short, Bud has to fight the fight of his life. But even then, it won’t be enough.

Two weight divisions is simply too much for his slender 5-foot-7 frame, compared to Canelo’s thick 5-10 frame. As the saying goes, the last thing to go is power, and don’t believe for an instant that Canelo has lost any, despite his recent streak of decision wins. He will attack the body early and he will be putting all of his force into his shots. Eventually, those shots will start to take their toll. Consider Charlo, a fighter who was bigger than Crawford, went into his shell very early against Canelo – knowing full well that opening up would put him at risk of getting knocked out.

Yes, we’ve had Leonard-Hagler and Spinks-Holmes. But we’ve also had Muhammad Ali-Bob Foster, Joe Frazier-Foster, Mike Tyson-Spinks, Terry Norris-Meldrick Taylor and Gennadiy Golovkin-Kell Brook.

For this fight, you can reference that other boxing axiom: a good man always beats a good little man. There are weight classes for a reason.

Canelo by unanimous decision.

Matthew Aguilar may be reached at [email protected]