Typically, this is the space where there is a prediction for the big fight of the weekend. Which, this weekend (with apologies to Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano), is Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul. But how do you predict a fight between a near-60-year-old former great who hasn’t fought a real fight in 20 years and a social media personality whose primary talent is that he is 30 years younger?

The purist boxing fan in me says – don’t bother with a prediction. This is not real. This is make-believe come to life.

But – it is real to potentially millions of boxing fans who are projected to tune in on Friday in what is now a sanctioned heavyweight fight that’ll take place before some 65,000 people at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (8 p.m., Eastern, Netflix). Like it or not, this will be big.

How Big is this Fight?

Did we mention that this event will be on Netflix – the streaming platform that has some 263 million subscribers? No pay-per-view. No premium cable. An app that is in 190 countries and is the 23rd most-visited website in the world (according to Wikipedia). What that means for this fight is that it will likely be one of the most-watched events – sporting or otherwise – in the history of streaming services and perhaps in the history of boxing.

Tyson’s name is box-office magic, and it doesn’t matter that he’s almost a senior citizen. People are suckers for nostalgia.

Consider, almost 30 years ago, a still-relatively young network called FOX lucked into televising a Tyson fight as the former heavyweight champ was embarking on a comeback after an almost three-year prison stint. The result? The Tyson-Buster Mathis fight drew a national Nielsen rating of 16.1 with a 28 share, giving FOX its highest-rated evening of programming – EVER – at the time. In all, more than 43 million people tuned in.

The numbers were – and could still be - staggering. And that’s because Tyson is a known entity over several generations and is the last visage of a long-gone era. An era where boxing was a mainstream sport and was televised nationally and seen casually by millions. He fought Jesse Fergeson, James “Quick” Tillis and Marvis Frazier on ABC on Saturday and Sunday afternoons in 1986 before fighting exclusively on HBO and winning the heavyweight championship later that year. He was expertly marketed and promoted by Jim Jacobs and Bill Cayton, yes. But he also fought on free, accessible, network television. You could go to an appliance store in the mall and Tyson would be on (that’s where I watched the Tillis fight). He was profoundly visible. And it helped that his performances were memorable.

So memorable that, almost 40 years later, Netflix will likely do history-making streaming numbers on Friday.

In terms of Tyson the great fighter – the one who all of us remember blitzing Frazier in 30 seconds, destroying Trevor Berbick to become the youngest heavyweight champion in boxing history at age 20 and blitzing Michael Spinks in 91 seconds – that guy has been gone for more than 25 years. His last win was in 2003, when he knocked out Clifford Ettienne in the first round. But, really, he was gone long before then.

Some say Tyson, 50-6 (44 KO’s), hasn’t been Tyson since he knocked out Spinks on June 27, 1988. Thirty-six years ago. Back then, a guy named Donald Trump was a part-time boxing promoter.

Tyson did look good in a 2020 exhibition with Roy Jones Jr. Some think he eased up on Jones Jr., who, as we all know, was also a phenomenal fighter in his prime but isn’t a heavyweight. “Iron Mike,” who now fights out of Las Vegas, got himself into shape, he moved well and he fought well. But – as weird as it sounds to say this – Paul isn’t Jones Jr.

For all of his bluster, the “Problem Child” is a big man and has power. He doesn’t have any boxing skills to speak of, but who says he’ll need any against a 58-year-old? At the very least, Paul has been active whereas Tyson hasn’t had a real fight in two decades. Paul last fought on July 20 – the day he was originally scheduled to fight Tyson – knocking out former MMA fighter Michael Perry in six.

Paul, 10-1 (7 KO’s), a native of Cleveland who now lives in Puerto Rico, has fought former basketball players, football players and aforementioned MMA fighters but only one boxer – Tommy Fury – and he lost. He is a solid physical specimen at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds. And he’s been receiving top-notch training now that he has become a celebrity.

Not that he has improved much. He remains a novice fighter.

So there you have it. You have an old fighter vs. a non-fighter in what will be the biggest boxing event in years. Maybe ever?

If Tyson, 5-foot-10 and about 230 pounds, can sustain any semblance of sustained combination punching and stay close, he’ll win. But he likely can’t. As good as he looks physically – and that’s no small feat at his age – he will not be able to sustain any kind of consistent production rate. He also won’t have the footwork of his prime in order to stay on top of Paul. So he will have to shoot out of his corner and get the job done very quickly if he has any chance. The longer this thing goes, his chances will decrease by the second. These are eight, two-minute rounds fought with 16-ounce gloves. That’s tough for anyone over the age of 35, much less almost 60.

Prediction

Based on that, go with the young, active guy. In fact, always go with the young, active guy. As much as we hate it sometimes, that’s life. Boxing isn’t a sport for the old. Tyson will unfortunately find that out the hard way.

Paul by 3^rd round TKO

(But make sure to watch the real fight of the night, Taylor vs. Serrano for the undisputed super lightweight championship of the world).

@MatthewAguilar5 on Twitter

We discuss the Tyson-Paul fight in the latest edition of Oldscribes Podcast with HOF writer Nigel Collins. SUBSCRIBE and FOLLOW